Крамер М. Революции и их последствия: структуры для анализа

Mark Kramer
REVOLUTIONS AND THEIR AFTERMATHS: А FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS
DOI 10.35549/HR.2019.2018.36608 

Крамер М. Революции и их последствия: структуры для анализа // Исторический вестник. 2018. Т. ХХIII. С. 38—59.
Kramer M. Revolutions and their Aftermaths: a Framework for Analysis [Revolyucii i ih posledstviya: struktury dlya analiza]. Istoricheskij vestnik / Historical Reporter. 2018. Vol. 23. P. 38–59.
КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА:
революция, социальная трансформация, теории революции, политическая трансформация.
KEY WORDS:
Revolution, Social Transformation, Theory of Revolutioin, Political Transformation.
АННОТАЦИЯ
М. Крамер. РЕВОЛЮЦИИ И ИХ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ: СТРУКТУРЫ ДЛЯ АНАЛИЗА
Эта статья написана c привлечением значительного числа актуальных публикаций по социальным наукам (особенно по таким темам, как революции, состязательная политика, политическое развитие, демократизация, авторитаризм и политическая экономия), целью статьи является разработка основы для изучения и понимания

политических, социальных и культурных изменений в государстве (Государство A), которое только что пережило революцию. В первую очередь в статье дается характеристика понятия «революция». Также в статье исследовано дальнейшее развитие событий в государстве А после того, как в нем произошла революция. Случайные и неожиданные события могут в значительной степени повлиять на развитие ситуации, но есть много контекстуальных факторов, опираясь на которое возможно спрогнозировать развитие ситуации. Кроме того, оценивается как указанные факторы могут повлиять на политическую, социальную иzэкономическую ситуацию в государстве А после революции.

REFERENCES
1.      Almond G.A., Verba S. The Civic Culture. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 1963.
2.      Ayittey G. Africa Betrayed. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. 1993.
3.      Bates R.H. When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press. 2008.
4.      Beissinger M.R. Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions // Perspectives on Politics. June 2007. Vol. 5. № 2. P. 259-276.
5.      Bendix R. Kings or People: Power and the Mandate to Rule. Berkeley: University of California Press. 1978.
6.      Boudreau V. Resisting Dictatorship: Repression and Protest in Southeast Asia. New York: Cambridge University Press. 2004.
7.      Burton M.G., Higley J. Elite Settlements // American Sociological Review. June 1987. Vol. 52. № 3. P. 295-307.
8.      Chenoweth E., Stephan M.J. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Resistance. New York: Columbia University Press. 2011.
9.      Cunningham D.E. Barriers to Peace in Civil War. New York: Cambridge University Press. 2011.
10.    Cunningham D.E., Ibrahim. Blocking Resolution: How External States Can Prolong Civil War // Journal of Peace Research. March 2010. Vol. 47. № 2. P. 115-127.
11.    De Jonge Oudraat C. Economic Sanctions and International Peace and Security // Crocker C.A., Hampson F.O., and Aall P., eds., Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World. Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace. 2007. P. 335-354.
12.    De Mesquita B.B. et al. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. 2003.
13.    De Mesquita B.B., Downs G.W. Intervention and Democracy // International Organization. Summer 2006. Vol. 60. № 3. P. 627-649.
14.    De Mesquita B.B. The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics. New York: Random House. 2011.
15.    Elbadawi A., Sambanis N. External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars, Policy Research Working Paper No. 2433. Washington, DC: The World Bank. September 2000.
16.    Enayat H. Revolution in Iran 1979: Religion as Political Ideology // O`Sullivan N., ed., Revolutionary Theory and Political Reality. New York: St. Martin's Press. 1983. P. 191-206.
17.    Epstein R.A. In Pursuit of Liberalism: International Institutions in Postcommunist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 2006.
18.    Escribà-Folch A., Wright J. Dealing with Tyranny: International Sanctions and the Survival of Authoritarian Rulers // International Studies Quarterly. June 2010. Vol. 54. № 2. P. 334-359.
19.    Foran J. Discourses and Social Forces: The Role of Culture and Cultural Studies in Understanding Revolutions // Foran J., ed., Theorizing Revolutions. New York: Routledge. 1997. P. 203-226.
20.    Gamson W.A. Political Discourse and Collective Action,” International Social Movement Research. 1988. № 1. P. 219-244.
21.    Gheciu A. NATO in the New Europe: The Politics of International Socialization after the Cold War. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. 2005.
22.    Goldstone J. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeley: University of California Press. 1993.
23.    Goldstone J.A. Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Arab Middle Eastern Autocracies // Foreign Affairs. May-June 2011. Vol. 90. № 3. P. 8-16.
24.    Gurses M., Mason T.D. Weak States, Regime Types, and Civil Wars // Civil Wars, Nos. March-June 2010. Vol. 12. № 1-2. P. 140-155.
25.    Higley J., GuntherR., eds. Elites and Democratic Consolidation in Latin America and Southern Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1992.
26.    Higley J.G., Field L., Groholt K. Elite Structure and Ideology. New York: Columbia University Press. 1976.
27.    Horowitz D.L. Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 2nd ed. Berkeley: University of California Press. 2000.
28.    Huntington S.P. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven: Yale University Press. 1968.
29.    Huntington S.P. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: Oklahoma University Press. 1991.
30.    Kaempfer W., Lowenberg A., Mertens W. International Economic Sanctions against a Dictator // Economics and Politics. March 2004. Vol. 16. № 1. P. 29-51.
31.    Keddie N.R., ed. Debating Revolution. New York: New York University Press. 1995.
32.    Keddie N.R., ed. Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution, rev. ed. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2005.
33.    Kramer M. The Demise of the Soviet Bloc // Journal of Modern History. December 2011. Vol. 83. № 4. P. 788-854.
34.    Levitsky S. Way L.A. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War // Almond G.A., Verba S., The Civic Culture. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 1963.
35.    Lichbach M.I. The Rebel’s Dilemma. Ann Arbor: Univeristy of Michigan Press. 1995.
36.    Magen A., Risse T., McFaul M., eds., Promoting Democracy and the Rule of Law: American and European Strategies. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. 2009.
37.    Marinov N. Do Economic Sanctions Destabilize Country Leaders? // American Journal of Political Science. July 2005. № 3. P. 564-576.
38.    McAdam D. Initiator and Spin-off Movements: Diffusion Processes in Protest Cycles // Traugott M., Repertoires and Cycles of Collective Action. Durham, NC: Duke University Press. 1995. P. 227-230.
39.    McAdam D., Tarrow S., Tilly C. Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements and Revolution // Lichbach M.I. and Zuckerman A.S., eds., Comparative Politics: Rationality, Culture, and Structure. New York: Cambridge University Press. 1997. P. 142-173.
40.    McGowan P. Coups and Conflict in West Africa, 1955-2004, Part 1: Theoretical Perspectives // Armed Forces & Society. October 2005. Vol. 32. № 1. P. 5-23.
41.    McGowan P. Coups and Conflict in West Africa, 1955-2004, Part 2: Empirical Findings // Armed Forces & Society, No. 2 .January 2006. Vol. 32. № 2. P. 234-253.
42.    Miller M.K. Economic Development, Violent Leader Removal, and Democratization // American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming.
43.    Nepstad S.E. Nonviolent Revolutions: Civil Resistance in the Late 20th Century. New York: Oxford University Press. 2011.
44.    Nordlinger E.A. Conflict Regulation in Deeply Divided Societies. Cambridge, MA: Center for International Affairs, Harvard University. 1972.
45.    O’Donnell G., Schmitter P., Whitehead L., eds. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 1992.
46.    Parsa M. States, Ideologies, and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of Iran, Nicaragua, and the Philippines. New York: Cambridge University Press. 2000.
47.    Pearson F.S., Walker S., Stern S., Military Intervention and Prospects for Democratization // International Journal of Peace Studies. Autumn/Winter 2006. Vol. 11. № 12. P. 63-86.
48.    Polese A., Ó Beacháin D. The Color Revolution Virus and Authoritarian Antidotes: Political Protest and Regime Counterattacks in Post-Communist Spaces // Demokratizatsiya. Spring 2010. Vol. 18. № 2. P. 111-132.
49.    Roberts A., Garton T.A., eds. Civil Resistance and Power Politics:
The Experience of Non-Violent Action from Gandhi to the Present. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009.
50.    Schock K. Unarmed Insurrections: People Power Movements in Nondemocracies. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. 2005.
51.    Skocpol T. States & Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China. New York: Cambridge University Press. 1979.
52.    Starr H. Democratic Dominoes: Diffusion Approaches to the Spread of Democracy in the International System // Journal of Conflict Resolution. June 1991. Vol. 35. № 2. P. 356-381.
53.    Starr H., Lindborg C. Democratic Dominoes Revisited: The Hazards of Governmental Transitions, 1974-1996 // Journal of Conflict Resolution. August 2003. Vol. 47. № 4.P. 490-519.
54.    Stephan M.J., Chenoweth E. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Action // International Security. Summer 2008. Vol. 33. № 1. P. 7-44.
55.    Stinchcombe A.L. Ending Revolutions and Building New Governments // Annual Review of Political Science/ Palo Alto: Annual Reviews. 1999. P. 51.
56.    Tarrow S. Mass Mobilization and Elite Exchange: Democratization Episodes in Italy and Spain // Democratization. 1995. Vol. 2. № 3. P. 221-245.
57.    Tilly C. European Revolutions: 1492-1992. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing. 1993.
58.    Tilly C. To Explain Political Processes // American Journal of Sociology. May 1995. Vol. 100. № 6. P. 1594-1610.
59.    Tucker J.A. Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions // Perspectives on Politics. September 2007. Vol. 5. № 3. P. 535-551.
60.    Vachudova M.A. Europe Undivided: Democracy, Leverage, and Integration after Communism. New York: Oxford University Press. 2005.
61.    Vreeland J.R. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy // Journal of Conflict Resolution. June 2008. Vol. 52. № 3. P. 401-425.
62.    Walt S. Revolution and War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. 1997.
63.    Werth N. A State against Its People: Repression, Violence, and Terror in the Soviet Union // Courtois S. et al., The Black Book of Communism: Crimes, Terror, Repression, ed. and trans. by Kramer M. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1999. esp. P. 132-145.
64.    Zunes S. Unarmed Insurrections against Authoritarian Governments in the Third World: A New Kind of Revolution // Third World Quarterly. September 1994. Vol. 15. № 3. P. 403–426.

Креймер Марк
директор программы по изучению Холодной войны, Гарвардский университет, США.