Содержание

В.В. Поликарпов. Измерения экономического роста России в начале ХХ в. и проблема источников



В.В. Поликарпов. Измерения экономического роста России в начале ХХ в. и проблема источников // Исторический вестник. 2020. Т. ХXХII. С. 10—29.

V.V. Polikarpov. Measurements of Russia’s economic growth in the early 20th century and the problem of sources [Izmereniya ekonomicheskogo rosta Rossii v nachale XX v. i problema istochnikov]. Istoricheskij vestnik / Historical Reporter. Vol. 32. 2020. P. 10—29.


Ключевые слова: Россия, военная промышленность, сравнительно-исторические оценки; эконометрический и микроэкономический методы, Л.Б. Кафенгауз, В.И. Бовыкин, П. Грегори, К.Ф. Шацилло.

Key words: Russian Empire, military industry; comparative historical estimates, econometric and microeconomic methods, L.B. Kafengauz, V.I. Bovykin, P. Gregory, K.F. Shatsillo.



Аннотация

В спорах о том, процветала ли или переживала кризис поздняя Российская империя, историки разделились на «оптимистов» и «пессимистов». При обосновании своей точки зрения обе стороны прибегают к статистическим подсчетам, но особенности хозяйственного быта в России и бедность имеющегося материала источников ограничивают результативность статистических и макроэкономических приемов сравнительного изучения. Наиболее рациональным представляется сочетание квантитативного подхода с анализом описательных источников.

Ключевым направлением исследования, обеспеченным документальной базой, может послужить приоритетная для власти сфера — промышленная и научно-техническая подготовка к войне. Состояние дел в этой области показывает предел возможностей страны и поэтому важно для понимания общих процессов ее развития.

Накопленный историками и экономистами исследовательский опыт заслуживает критического анализа. 


Abstract

While disputing whether the late Russian Empire experienced a crisis or lived in prosperity, historians are either pessimists or optimists. To confirm their point of view they refer to statistic data, but the resulting quality of both statistical and macroeconomic methods is much lowered by the lack of sources and the specifics of economic life in Russia.

The most rational approach could be to combine quantitive methods with analysis of descriptive materials.

Industrial, scientific and technical preparations for war, which was of the top interest for authorities and therefore has a vast documentary base could be the key areas of investigation.

The state of affairs in this area shows the limits and opportunities of the country and therefore this information is essential for understanding the general tendencies of its development.

The cumulative experience of historians and economists should be critically analyzed.



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Поликарпов Владимир Васильевич — кандидат исторических наук член Бюро Секции «История социальных реформ, движений и революций» Научного совета РАН по фундаментальным вопросам российской и зарубежной истории.

Vladimir V. Polikarpov — Candidate of Historical Sciences, Member of the Section «History of Social Reforms, Movements and Revolutions» of the Scientific Council of the Russian Academy Sciences on the Fundamental Issues of Russian and Foreign History.




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